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The Barbell Strategy That Lost to Simple Math (30 Years of Data Don't Lie)
- Fabio Capela
- Portfolio strategy , Asset allocation , Backtesting , Long term investing , Bond strategy , Gold investing
Picture this: You spend hours crafting the “perfect” barbell portfolio. 20% gold for crisis protection, 30% stocks for growth, 50% long bonds for that duration magic. You’ve read Taleb. You understand convexity. You’re ready to crush the naive masses with their simple equal-weight nonsense.
Read MoreThe Fed's September Rate Cut: High Probability and Strategic Portfolio Positioning
- Fabio Capela
- Federal reserve policy , Interest rate analysis , Portfolio strategy , Bond investing , Sector rotation , Market analysis , Monetary policy , Investment strategy
Bottom Line Up Front: Markets are pricing in an approximately 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data and evolving economic conditions. Investors should consider repositioning portfolios to benefit from this likely shift in monetary policy.
Read MoreIs 2025 Actually More Chaotic Than Other Years? (And What to Do About It)
- Fabio Capela
- Market analysis , Systematic investing , Trump tariffs , Trade policy , Market volatility , Portfolio strategy , Current markets , Economic analysis
I’ve heard this phrase dozens of times in 2025—from fellow investors, financial media, and even seasoned portfolio managers. There’s a pervasive sense that something fundamental has shifted, that traditional relationships between assets have broken down, and that we’re navigating uncharted territory.
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