Long-Term Investing
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The Barbell Strategy That Lost to Simple Math (30 Years of Data Don't Lie)
- Fabio Capela
- Portfolio strategy , Asset allocation , Backtesting , Long term investing , Bond strategy , Gold investing
Picture this: You spend hours crafting the “perfect” barbell portfolio. 20% gold for crisis protection, 30% stocks for growth, 50% long bonds for that duration magic. You’ve read Taleb. You understand convexity. You’re ready to crush the naive masses with their simple equal-weight nonsense.
Read MoreVariability Drain: The Silent Killer of Long-Term Compounding
- Fabio Capela
- Systematic investing , Portfolio mathematics , Compounding , Risk management , Quantitative finance , Volatility management , Long term investing , Portfolio optimization
You spend years refining your strategy. You optimize your entries and exits. You backtest it across decades. On paper, it shows strong returns. Maybe even impressive alpha. But something keeps bothering you. Despite solid average returns, your portfolio isn’t growing the way you expect. You’re not losing in any dramatic way — no catastrophic drawdowns, no obvious mistakes. But something subtle is bleeding your wealth. Quietly. Relentlessly.
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