Investment Strategy

The 7 Backtesting Sins That Kill Trading Strategies Before They Start

• Fabio Capela
• Algorithmic trading , Quantitative finance , Risk management , Systematic trading , Portfolio management , Backtesting , Trading systems , Investment strategy

Bottom Line Up Front: Even the most sophisticated trading algorithms fail in production because of fundamental backtesting errors. After analyzing thousands of strategy failures, we’ve identified seven critical mistakes that account for over 90% of the gap between backtest and live performance. Master these, and you’ll avoid the graveyard of “perfect” strategies that blew up on day one.

Dollar Cost Averaging is Mathematically Inferior (But You Should Still Do It)

• Fabio Capela
• Investment strategy , Dollar cost averaging , Behavioral finance , Investment psychology , Portfolio management

Why the “worse” investment strategy often produces better real-world results

The Fed's September Rate Cut: High Probability and Strategic Portfolio Positioning

• Fabio Capela
• Federal reserve policy , Interest rate analysis , Portfolio strategy , Bond investing , Sector rotation , Market analysis , Monetary policy , Investment strategy

Bottom Line Up Front: Markets are pricing in an approximately 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data and evolving economic conditions. Investors should consider repositioning portfolios to benefit from this likely shift in monetary policy.

Building a 3-Fund Portfolio: Step-by-Step Walkthrough

• Fabio Capela
• Portfolio management , Index investing , Investment strategy , Simple investing , Asset allocation , Etf investing , Mutual funds , Beginner investing

By the end of this guide, you’ll know exactly how to build and maintain a complete investment portfolio using just three low-cost index funds. No complicated stock picking, no timing the market, no endless research required.

The Hidden Reality of High Sharpe Ratios: Why Even Elite Strategies Face Monthly Losses

• Fabio Capela
• Risk management , Investment strategy , Portfolio management , Quantitative finance , Statistical analysis , Performance evaluation , Investment mathematics , Risk assessment

The Sharpe ratio stands as one of finance’s most celebrated metrics, elegantly capturing risk-adjusted returns in a single number. An annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.0 sounds impressive—it represents exceptional risk-adjusted performance that places a strategy in the top tier of investment approaches. Yet here lies a reality that surprises many investors: even strategies with outstanding annualized Sharpe ratios experience negative months far more frequently than intuition suggests.

Why I Never Use Stop Losses (And You Shouldn't Either)

• Fabio Capela
• Risk management , Investment strategy , Portfolio management , Systematic investing , Trading psychology , Position sizing , Market volatility , Investment discipline

“You should always use stop losses.”

I’ve heard this advice countless times from financial advisors, trading courses, and investment books. It’s supposed to be one of the fundamental rules of risk management—set a level where you’ll cut your losses and stick to it no matter what.

Why I Stopped Believing You Have to Choose Between High Returns and Low Risk

• Fabio Capela
• Low volatility investing , Risk management , Portfolio optimization , Systematic investing , Investment strategy , Volatility control , Asset allocation , Risk return analysis

Every investor gets told the same story: if you want high returns, you have to accept high risk. Want to play it safe? You’ll have to settle for mediocre returns. It’s supposedly the fundamental law of investing, as immutable as gravity.